For the first time since December 11 (30 days), we had a below normal day in Indianapolis. What a run! Winter 2018-19 is running 11-degrees warmer than last winter with nearly 80 percent of the days since December 1 above normal. It's only a glancing blow of arctic air and the chill is easing Thursday evening. Gusty winds have eased and temperatures are actually up 5-6-degrees warmer than same time Wednesday.
SNOW ON THE WAY
A bummer of a snow season for those who love snow and the winter activities that go along with it. To date, less than one-inch of snow has fallen in Indianapolis – that's nearly 10" below normal.
Attention now turns to a developing storm system that will take a southern route and begin impacting us by day break Saturday. Before the first flakes have even fallen, the National Weather Service has issued several winter watches, warnings and advisories as of Thursday night. Included is a Winter Storm Watch for a portion of central and south central Indiana through Sunday morning.
Snow will spread north and east starting Friday night and across all of Indiana by noon Saturday. The current forecast track of the storm suggests that a 'deformation zone' (band of heavy snowfall) will develop and spread into south-central Indiana by Saturday afternoon.
Snowfall rates could reach 1 to 2" per hour in the band north of the low pressure track. As of Thursday night, the feeling is that highest totals are projected into southwest and south-central Indiana of 6" or locally higher before ending early Sunday morning. These bands are usually 30 to 50 miles wide and are still difficult to place at this time and will warrant continued motoring.
This will be the first significant snow of the season with snowfall of 3" to 5" possible area wide in central Indiana. Totals will be lighter north.
I'm posting below the NWS probability of a 4" snowfall which formulated of a multi-model ensemble. The 80 percent probability is impressive and a good start to where the heaviest of snow could fall.
Off 7 computer models, the average snowfall for Indianapolis is 4.3" with a spread of 3.1" to 5.3". While these number are not carved in stone and will be modified over the next 48 hours, be sure to continue to check in with updates here, online on air and across out social media outlets.