Snowy start Thursday, winter weather advisory issued; Still tracking weekend storm

DAMP NIGHT

Drizzle at times as temperatures have nudged above freezing this evening but patchy freezing drizzle will likely develop as temperatures slip just below freezing after sunset.  Untreated roads and walkways may become slick.  The melting snow and small spread in the temperatures will lead to some drop in visibility early this evening.

SNOWY START

A weak low pressure will race east late tonight and spread a wet snow into the state before sunrise.  Snowfall may quickly accumulate from a half inch to upwards of one and half inches before changing to rain late morning.  Moderate snowfall is possible for early Thursday commuters.  Plan for a slow start!

UPDATE ON POTENTIAL WEEKEND STORM

Things have changed slightly from early week projections, as expected.  It will take much more time and more data to truly know what this storm will due as it remains off the west coast of the U.S. Wednesday night.  We are date deficient out over the waters and will wait for the storm and its energy to make landfall, then we can bombard it with more sensing devices.

The early take remains as a formidable and dangerous winter storm for this upcoming weekend.  The storm's track is still for a southern route but differences in location, timing and intensity have become more apparent off overnight computer runs.  Noting late last night on our 10 and 11 pm broadcasts, the potential for two branches of the jet stream to 'phase' or merge now differs from model to model.  It is not uncommon at longer distances out that the computers 'phase' these jet streams, the polar branch and sub-tropical branch then as the event nears the streams remain split.  This is key as to how explosive the storm development will be when merged.  Earlier in the week there was much buzz that a massive storm would impact the nation with incredible snow totals and 'worst case' scenarios.  These depictions were based on the fore mentioned jet stream energy.  Things change and often they do right up until the day of the storm.

Looking toward consistency and tempering snowfall expectations, we still have a substantial amount of snow that could fall and a storm that may impact much of the eastern 1/3 of the nation.

At this time the track is south, there is moisture and enough cold air that a half-foot of snow could fall with the storm.  I'm posting below the Weather Prediction Centers probability of 4" snowfall -  a probability graphic based off a multi-model ensemble.

 

Given the track it favors the heaviest band through central Indiana as of Wednesday night.  This is by far not a final take and will be revised.  Remember the FOUR T's of a winter storm as we stated last week.   TRACK - TIMING - TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.  These will be better answered starting later Thursday and Friday.

 

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