WEEKEND STORM TRACK BRINGS SPRING-LIKE FEEL
Quieter weather settles in to end the work week but sights are once again set on the weekend and the approach of a dynamic storm system.
Storm tracks in the winter have three origins that are most likely to impact central Indiana, "clippers," pan-handle, and gulf lows. Each takes on different characteristics but the southern lows are the ones that pack more moisture. Displayed below are the favored tracks for snow here, but when the low takes another route, a whole variety of new weather unfolds here. That is what is expected this weekend.
Entering the weekend, a powerful low pressure (storm) will develop and begin moving warmer and moister air in our direction. The forecast storm track takes a western route placing central Indiana in the warm sector Saturday. Several states are bracing for significant wind and snow while south, heavy rainfall, spring-like temps and a growing threat for a severe weather outbreak is on the rise. At this time, we are expecting showers and even a few thunderstorms to arrive late morning Saturday with temperatures surging to the 60s well after dark.
The threat for rain jumps quickly early Saturday as the warm front approaches. At this distance, there looks to be two waves, by mid-morning downpours and a few thunderstorms are rumbling overhead. A new wave of showers and storms will race quickly east ahead of the approaching cold front later Saturday evening and could produce a stronger or gusty storm after dark. At this time, the threat for a severe weather outbreak is looking likely over the Tennessee Valley. I'm posting below the forecast tornado ingredients from the Storm Prediction Center's SREF ensemble severe forecasts. The axis is pointing heavily to a tornado outbreak from the Bootheel of Missouri to portions of Arkansas and western Tennessee. We will monitor trends.
COLD AND WINDY SUNDAY
The cold front will be a strong one wiping out our warm up very quickly and deliver very strong winds very early Sunday morning. Gusts of 45 to 50 mph are possible as temperatures fall sharply into the 20s by afternoon.
LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR TO STAGE A COMEBACK
The signals are strong that a colder pattern will emerge for the final week of February and March could really come in like a lion. Late season arctic air is once again on the move and it is looking very likely it will spill into the eastern U.S. entering the new month. Will snow follow? Usually does, those details will shake out over coming days. The next threat for an appreciable snow could come next Wednesday.