Storm threat rises along with the humidity; Eyes on the tropics

HUMIDITY SURGES

It was nice while it lasted but the humidity that eased late Monday and afforded low temperatures in the upper 50s outlying early Tuesday has moved on. The dew point continues to rise quickly late Tuesday and area-wide it is getting more uncomfortable. The heat was a dry one early in the day – now it has turned stuffy. Overnight, the low temperatures will remain near 70-degrees.

The temperatures reached 90-degrees in many locations Tuesday but Wednesday 90° plus temperatures will be area-wide. Add the humidity, and the heat index will reach 94° to 99° late afternoon.

STORM THREAT

We are drying out fast and as a cold front nears the state late Wednesday, there is a threat for a few thunderstorms especially late in the day. The prospects are not great honestly, with our coverage barely reaching 30%. 

Early morning hours could yield a brief downpour as a warm front passes but late day and early evening may be the best chance for a storm. Should a storm develop, there could be a gusty or even severe storm. The Storm Prediction Center has included a “slight” risk for a severe storm. Again, the prospects of even getting a storm are rather small.

SEVERE SEASON EASES

The seasonal migration north of severe weather is in full effect during the month of July. As jet stream winds are moved north by building heat in the central U.S., the organized threat moves up near the U.S. – Canadian border. Note the tornado frequency in U.S. has passed its peak and more frequent tornado occurrences are likely in the upper Midwest.

In Indiana, the average number of tornadoes drops to two from five in June.

TROPICS GET ACTIVE

A churning low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of the Florida panhandle has the makings of being the second named Atlantic based storm of the year. The National Hurricane Center placed a 70% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

There is strong evidence off the overnight computer models that this will become a tropical storm and would be named Barry. Some machine forecasts are even taking this storm to a hurricane before making landfall over the weekend. Should the storm further develop as expected, the remnants are likely here by the middle of next week.

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