HEAT WAVE CONTINUES
For the third straight day, the temperate climbed to and surpassed in many locations the 90-degree mark in central Indiana. When combined with very high humidity this unseasonably high heat is magnified with a heat index that neared 100° late in the day. Some of the top heat indices included 97° in Muncie and 99° in Terre Haute.
The high of 91° marked the 21st 90-degree day of 2019 and is only the 14th time that a September 12 reached 90°. It hasn't been this hot for this date since 1999, and the record for the date remained safe - set in 1897 of 96-degrees.
We will end the work week hot and humid Friday afternoon with the potential of another 90° day along with a heat index in the mid-90s. A cold front will approach late afternoon bringing a few storms with it, then shifting winds and delivering a refreshing change to open the weekend. Northwest winds will deliver much less humid air by early Saturday morning! Relief is coming.
LOOKING FOR RAIN
Quietly we've gone very dry across the state and there has been an increase within the state of areas designated in 'moderate drought' conditions due to the lack of rainfall.
The rainfall outlook is a not very encouraging as noted above. We will continue to monitor trends.
Since August 28, we've received less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall and September 2019 now ranks as the driest to date in 14 years (2005). As of Thursday, we are 1.22" below normal in the rainfall for September.
Rainfall Friday will be scattered to only 30% to 40% coverage of showers and thunderstorms so we are not optimistic that any widespread rain will fall.
The better coverage will likely arrive in the eastern third of the state later into the afternoon during the peak heating of the day. I'm posting below the forecast of available energy (CAPE) in the atmosphere, a location that combined with the lifting action of a cold front, would likely produce the best threat of a thunderstorm. This narrow corridor in the eastern third of the state may have the best chance of a downpour and even a gusty storm before 5/6 p.m. Friday. The threat for rain and storms for many area-wide high school games is limited but we will watch this region of the state late day.
Beyond Friday's rainchance, there are really no real rain chances through the weekend and much of next week.
WARM PATTERN NOT ENDING
Undoubtedly the feeling early Saturday morning will be tremendous as the humidity takes a dive to start the day but the stretch of above normal temperatures is likely to continue through the weekend and again most of next week.
Temperatures will rebound quickly starting Sunday afternoon and resurgent heat and humidity will arrive again starting Monday and likely holding again for most of next week. Temperatures are expected to again top 90-degrees again starting Monday.
Is there any relief on the way? There are hints of a larger pattern change last next week as we enter the last weekend of summer. Overnight machines are still hinting at a large shift to cooler air but are not as pronounced as yesterday's solutions. We will monitor but until further notice, summer will continue its hold.