After a beautiful, calm weekend across central Indiana, we're about to shake things up again. We're tracking a weather system to our west that will bring us rain, t-storms and windy conditions as we start a new work week.
While rain chances are most likely to arrive after the morning commute, still have the rain gear handy. You're going to want it around as we head later into the morning and afternoon. Best timing for rain to move into our western counties will be after 8 am, arriving in Indy metro closer to 10-11 AM.
As these showers continue to spread east through the morning into the afternoon, we'll likely see a few thunderstorms developing out of these as well. The afternoon hours will be when instability is more favorable for thunderstorm development.
While cloud cover and rain will inhibit instability, a few isolated stronger storms can't be completely ruled out. Winds gusting 30 to near 40 mph at times will already be impacting the state. A few t-storms that develop may be capable of bringing even stronger winds to the surface during the afternoon/early evening hours.
We certainly need the rain. Indianapolis is now running more than 4" below the average rainfall we should have had for the season, to-date. Much of central Indiana is under "Abnormally Dry" or "Moderately Dry" conditions.
The bulk of the rain will fall by the mid afternoon hours on Monday. Current models indicate much of the area could see upwards of a half an inch of rainfall with localized higher amounts of an 1"+.
As the cold front clears the state late Monday night, rain chances will ease and temperatures will drop to much cooler conditions from where we've been the past few afternoons.
Plan on temperatures Tuesday afternoon only peaking in the mid to upper 50's before dropping to back into the 30's by early Wednesday morning.