Warm up Wednesday precedes first of 2 cold surges; Record cold coming next week?

Data pix.

COOL NIGHT

Skies are to remain mainly clear, and following a passing cold front, it will be a colder night. Temperatures are to fall again to freezing by sunrise area-wide.

Wednesday may open chilly, but a passing warm front will allow milder airflow in again on southwest breezes. Temperatures that as of recently have been trending more below normal will rise well into 50s, which is more typical of the normal high this time of year. There will be a trade off for the warmer weather -- the chance of showers by late day or early evening.

COLD SURGES COMING

The Arctic Express is still on track as the jet stream pattern overhead takes a decided turn to wintry weather. A buckle in the jet stream along the west coast will dislodge the first lobe of cold air starting Thursday.

Thursday is a transition day with two branches of the jet stream crossing the state. The southern branch carries moisture, while the northern branch carries the cold. From time-to-time, especially later into the cold weather months, these branches will merge, creating a messy weather picture. That will not be the case this time around.

The prospects for precipitation becoming a wintry mixture is looking less impactful for Thursday, but it is still being closely monitored. The combination of falling temperatures and the likelihood of some light rain mixing with sleet and flurries still exists but is tending toward much less impactful winter weather conditions. The cold is still coming.

UNSEASONABLY COLD

We will end the work we cold again, with the first surge arriving on northwest winds. Friday's high will not get out of the 30s, nearly 20-degrees below normal. Entering the weekend, Saturday morning could dip into the teens -- near record low by sunrise. This is the coldest of the first surge. The chill eases for the rest of the weekend.

RELOAD THE COLD

Cold surge number two arrives behind an early season arctic front late Sunday night into Monday morning. This surge will be stronger, delivering the coldest air in eight months and driving temperatures to near or record levels. The temperatures that are in jeopardy include Saturday's 17° -- set in 1991 -- and next Tuesday's 18° (1995/1943) and Wednesday's 14° (1911).

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