Coldest November in decades yields small warm up with rain returning

Data pix.

FOGGY

A fast moving system has dropped into central Indiana with widely scattered showers. The clipper-like low will depart this evening, taking any showers with it. Clouds will hang on tonight and so will the low level moisture. Foggy conditions have persisted in many locations throughout the day, but the fog becomes wide-spread tonight. Plan on another foggy morning Wednesday, with perhaps even lower visibility before sunrise.

WARM UP IN THE WORKS

November 2019 continues to rank second coldest on record through Thursday as we reached nine straight days below normal. It is the coldest November in 68 years, only trailing 1951 by less than one degree.

FIGHTING FOR FIFTY

We haven't reached the 50-degree mark in nine days, and this November has produced only six 50-degree or warmer days. That is among the fewest 5% on record, that's rare. We are expecting a warm up mid-week with Wednesday offering up the first of two 50-degree days this week.

There will be some resistance, as the clouds and fog will have a say in how warm it will be on Wednesday, but strengthening southwest winds will elevate temperatures well above 50° Thursday before new showers arrive. It will be a small victory for those who are just not happy with the early chill. The average high temperature lowers to 50° starting Wednesday.

The warm up comes with a trade-off: more rain chances. Showers are to return as early as mid-morning Thursday. Showers will likely be most numerous again late morning to early afternoon and evening Thursday.

FAST FORWARD

Looking beyond some rain chances again Thursday, Friday and even early Saturday we are monitoring a developing storm system that could impact pre-Thanksgiving travel.

For the second straight day, overnight computer models the trend for a powerhouse storm to develop before Thanksgiving day is still on track.

Solutions suggest a quickly strengthening low pressure will form Tuesday in the south-central Plains. The lows track and position places central Indiana in the warm and wet sector of the storm with potential for showers and thunderstorms arriving here as early as Tuesday night.

The storm has the potential to bring a variety of weather conditions from strong to severe storms on one end (warmer), with winter storm to blizzard conditions on the cold side.

The pressure drop suggests the storm could be bombing out, meaning the central pressure will fall so rapidly that a powerful wind field will form. The term bombing refers to the rapid drop in pressure within a 24 hour period. Meteorologist refer to a low pressure storm system that drops so rapidly as "bombogenesis." The end result is a large-scale, disruptive storm that could have serious impacts on holiday travel. Stay tuned! We will monitor trends in the coming days.

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