Friday concluded the work week stretch of 70-degree plus warmth and the streak is not quite over yet. However a large pattern change is coming
WARM SPELL EXTENDES
The streak is alive and well despite added clouds and a few late day showers and storms. The preliminary high of 77° in Indianapolis extended the 70-degree streak (or warmer) to five days. This warm April has produced eight days at or above 70° with two of those days reaching 80°. As we near the mid-way point of the month, April 2023 is the warmest April in eight years and is running over 5-degrees per day above normal. This April currently ranks among the warmest 11% on record to-date.
It has also been dry with the very first rainfall in over a week arriving Friday. There are two systems that drive rain chances here this weekend, the first is moving up Friday. Widely scattered showers and a storm ore two were developing late Friday afternoon. Driven by a weakened upper-low and the heating of the day, a few will roam beyond sunset then diminish. This system will be nudged out starting Saturday morning and makes way for the larger system for the second half of the weekend.
Most of Saturday will be spent sunny and warm but an approaching cold front will increase showers and storms late day and into the night. Real rain chances area-wide and increase to over 50% coverage by early Sunday morning.
The front will sweep the state with colder air surging in behind the front. While some dry hours are possible early afternoon, the very chilly air will drop new rain showers that could mix ice pellets and some wet snow in Sunday night. That chance of wintry precipitation lingers into early Monday. The cold, low churning overhead Monday will produce more March like air as temperatures fail to reach 50-degrees in many locations.
IT ISN’T OVER TIL IT’S OVER
We will open the weekend with more warm weather but a cold front along with a developing ‘dip’ in the jet stream will bring on some sharply colder changes for the second half of the weekend. After another high temperature near 80-degrees, showers and storms arrive overnight into early Sunday. The wind shift early Sunday slams the door on the warmth with much colder air sweeping into the state. Rain will precede the front increasing to over 50% coverage by early Sunday, a thunderstorm or two could also be in the mix.
Brace for a blast of much colder air starting Sunday and the possibility that a few ice pellets or wet snow flakes arrive on the scene. Temperatures will cool to more like March levels here permitting some chance to see late season snow. It is very possible that Monday will fail to reach 50-degrees in many locations and may open with passing rain/snow/ice pellets. The upper-low will move on by early Tuesday allowing for sunshine and mild weather later next week.
How frequent is snow in April?
Scanning weather records, 83% of April’s on record have produced at least a “trace” of snow in Indianapolis.
Snow on the ground is much more rare in April. Only 27 days on record have produced a 1″ snow! Remarkably, each of the last two have produced a sticking snow! Most recently last year, April 18th, one-inch of snow collected. Two years ago, a record snow of 2.0″ fell on April 20th. Several inches accumulated further north on that date, with some locations topping 3″ to 4″ from Crawfordsville east through Tipton and Alexandria. The picture below is from Kokomo April 20th, 2021.
