Updated 2021 NFL Mock Draft: predicting the first 2 rounds

Indianapolis Colts

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INDIANAPOLIS — Thursday kicks off the 2021 NFL Draft, providing hope to 32 teams, a dream job to 259 rookies and a weekend of sports entertainment to millions of fans.

Teams will make decisions that influence the trajectory of their franchise years into the future, and each player’s career success will largely depend on where they’re drafted and how suitable that environment is to that unique individual.

For the amount of time and effort spent studying prospects, even Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard will tell you it’s “not an exact science.”

“Let’s be real here,” Ballard said Friday during a Zoom call. “I think we’re pretty good at what we do, but there needs to be a little luck involved.”

In spite of the erratic nature of the draft, one can’t help but speculate. In this mock draft, FOX59’s Joe Hopkins attempts to predict the first two rounds by weighing team needs and team-building philosophy against the best player available. 

In this Friday, Jan. 1, 2021 file photo, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence passes against Ohio State during the first half of the Sugar Bowl NCAA college football game in New Orleans. (AP Photo/John Bazemore, File)

1 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence – QB – Clemson

NFL Comparison – Andrew Luck

Lawrence has been a projected first-overall pick since his freshman year and is the most highly-regarded quarterback to come out since Andrew Luck in 2012. Jacksonville hopes to finally land a franchise quarterback with this can’t-miss prospect.

Other Considerations – Zach Wilson (QB), Justin Fields (QB), Trey Lance (QB)

BYU quarterback Zach Wilson throws a pass during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Houston, Friday, Oct. 16, 2020, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

2 – New York Jets: Zach Wilson – QB – BYU

NFL Comparison – Aaron Rodgers

R-E-L-A-X as Rodgers would say. Wilson’s pro comparison is a reflection of body type and playstyle, not so much a prediction of career success. With that said, New York moves on from Sam Darnold for a quarterback with Rodgers-like tools.

Other Considerations – Justin Fields (QB), Trey Lance (QB), Penei Sewell (OT)

Mac Jones #10 of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks to pass during the second quarter of the College Football Playoff National Championship game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Hard Rock Stadium on January 11, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

3 – San Fransisco 49ers: Mac Jones – QB – Alabama

NFL Comparison – Matt Ryan

Since paying a ransom to move up nine spots, all indications have been that coach Kyle Shanahan has his sights set on Mac Jones. The Alabama distributor isn’t wowing anyone with his physical ability, but the 49ers are betting on Jones’ accuracy, anticipation and intangibles.

Other Considerations – Trey Lance (QB), Justin Fields (QB), Ja’Marr Chase (WR)

Justin Fields #1 of the Ohio State Buckeyes looks to pass during the first quarter of the College Football Playoff National Championship game against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Hard Rock Stadium on January 11, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

4 – Atlanta Falcons: Justin Fields – QB – Ohio State

NFL Comparison – Robert Griffin III

Quarterbacks go one, two, three, four as Atlanta selects their heir apparent to the aging Matt Ryan. Fields can adjust to the pro game while he sits behind the veteran, that is if his talent doesn’t get him on the field sooner than expected.

Other Considerations – Trey Lance (QB), Kyle Pitts (TE), Penei Sewell (OT)

Florida Gators tight end Kyle Pitts (84) scores a touchdown during an NCAA college football game against Kentucky in Gainesville, Fla., in this Nov. 28, 2020, file photo. (Brad McClenny/The Gainesville Sun via AP, File)

5 – Cincinnati Bengals: Kyle Pitts – TE – Florida

NFL Comparison – Darren Waller

Pitts appears to be the next cheat-code tight end in the mold of a Travis Kelce or Darren Waller. The Bengals provide Joe Burrow a freakish talent who some consider to be the second best player in the draft.

Other Considerations – Penei Sewell (OT), Ja’Marr Chase (WR), Rashawn Slater (OT)

Ja’Marr Chase #1 of the LSU Tigers scores a touchdown as A.J. Terrell #8 of the Clemson Tigers defends in the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Mercedes Benz Superdome on January 13, 2020 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

6 – Miami Dolphins: Ja’Marr Chase – WR – LSU

NFL Comparison – A.J. Brown

The Dolphins surround Tua Tagovailoa with weapons in an effort to help the young quarterback succeed. Chase has all the makings of a dominant, number one receiver who can beat you in just about every way imaginable.

Other Considerations – DeVonta Smith (WR), Penei Sewell (OT), Rashawn Slater (OT)

In this Aug. 31, 2019, file photo, Oregon offensive lineman Penei Sewell (58) looks on as Oregon plays Auburn in an NCAA college football game in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins, File)

7 – Detroit Lions: Penei Sewell – OT – Oregon

NFL Comparison – Ronnie Stanley

While wide receiver is a glaring need, the Lions want to be a hard-nosed, kneecap-biting team under new coach Dan Campbell. Don’t be surprised if they invest in the trenches, especially after trading for QB Jared Goff, who struggles to create off script.

Other Considerations – DeVonta Smith (WR), Rashawn Slater (OT), Jaylen Waddle (WR)

Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater, participates in the school’s Pro Day football workout for NFL scouts Tuesday, March 9, 2021, in Evanston, Ill. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

8 – Carolina Panthers: Rashawn Slater – OT – Northwestern

NFL Comparison – Tristan Wirfs

Investing in the offensive line is a smart way to ensure the Sam Darnold trade works out. Despite being slightly undersized, there is a legitimate debate between Slater and Sewell for the draft’s top offensive tackle.

Other Considerations – Patrick Surtain II (CB), DeVonta Smith (WR), Micah Parsons (LB)

North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance scrambles against Central Arkansas in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020, in Fargo, N.D. (AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)

9 – Denver Broncos: Trey Lance – QB – North Dakota State

NFL Comparison – Dak Prescott

Denver quietly has one of the league’s most talented rosters but is doomed for mediocrity unless able to solve the riddle of quarterback. The Broncos take a chance on Lance, who is as physically gifted as any QB in this draft but still in development with just 318 collegiate pass attempts.

Other Considerations – Micah Parsons (LB), Patrick Surtain II (CB), Kwity Paye (EDGE)

Alabama defensive back Patrick Surtain II (2) defends against Notre Dame during the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

10 – Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II – CB – Alabama

NFL Comparison – Xavier Rhodes

Defense was an issue last year for the Cowboys, who gave up the fifth most points in the league (29.6 PPG). Surtain II fills a need and teams up with Trevon Diggs to give Dallas an exciting, young duo in the secondary.

Other Considerations – Jaycee Horn (CB), Kwity Paye (EDGE), Caleb Farley (CB)

In this Saturday, Sept. 28, 2019, file photo, Michigan defensive lineman Kwity Paye (19) sacks Rutgers quarterback Artur Sitkowski (8) in the first half of an NCAA college football game, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)

11 – New York Giants: Kwity Paye – EDGE – Michigan

NFL Comparison – Melvin Ingram

The Kenny Golladay signing frees New York up to use their first pick on a pass rusher, a move more in line with general manager Dave Gettleman’s team-building philosophy. While he’s yet to put it all together, Paye is an explosive athlete with the tools to develop into a double-digit sack artist.

Other Considerations – DeVonta Smith (WR), Azeez Ojulari (EDGE), Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL)

DeVonta Smith #6 of the Alabama Crimson Tide rushes for a 42 yard touchdown during the second quarter of the College Football Playoff National Championship game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Hard Rock Stadium on January 11, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

12 – Philadelphia Eagles: DeVonta Smith – WR – Alabama

NFL Comparison – Stefon Diggs

Despite trading down, the Eagles still land a top-tier prospect thanks to the run on quarterbacks. Don’t let Smith’s slender frame fool you. The Heisman Trophy winner is a nightmare to cover with elite route running ability, hands and play speed.

Other Considerations – Jaylen Waddle (WR), Jaycee Horn (CB), Caleb Farley (CB)

Christian Darrisaw smiles after completing a set of offensive line drills during Virginia Tech Pro Day in Blacksburg, Va., Friday, March 26, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Gentry)

13 – Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw – OT – Virginia Tech

NFL Comparison – Eric Fisher

Protecting Justin Herbert should be Chargers’ top priority after his record-setting rookie campaign. Darrisaw was as reliable as they come for the Hokies in 2020, and his length, power and awareness should translate well to the next level.

Other Considerations – Jaylen Waddle (WR), Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL), Jaycee Horn (CB)

Jaelan Phillips of Miami celebrates a defensive stop during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Virginia Tech Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020, in Blacksburg, Va. (Matt Gentry/The Roanoke Times via AP, Pool)

14 – Minnesota Vikings: Jaelan Phillips – DE – Miami

NFL Comparison – Montez Sweat

Whether to pair with Danielle Hunter or replace the disgruntled star, the Vikings are in need of a pass rusher after finishing in the bottom five in sacks (23). One could argue Phillips is the best edge rusher in the class based on his 2020 production and pro day performance, but an injury history that prompted him to temporarily medically retire after the 2018 season will give teams pause.

Other Considerations – Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL), Christian Barmore (DT), Jayson Oweh (DE)

Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) carries the ball against Auburn during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 30, 2019, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

15 – New England Patriots: Jaylen Waddle – WR – Alabama

NFL Comparison – Tyreek Hill

With the top quarterback prospects off the board, New England upgrades its offense in the form of a playmaker. Waddle moves at a different pace than everyone else on the field, and his otherworldly speed brings an element the Patriots were missing in 2020.

Other Considerations – Micah Parsons (LB), Jaycee Horn (CB), Caleb Farley (CB)

South Carolina defensive back Jaycee Horn (1) plays against Vanderbilt in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

16 – Arizona Cardinals: Jaycee Horn – CB – South Carolina

NFL Comparison – Marshon Lattimore

Need and value align for the Cardinals as they select the physically gifted Gamecock. Horn is a tremendous athlete with excellent size, ball-skills and a physical playstyle.

Other Considerations – Caleb Farley (CB), Micah Parsons (LB), Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL)

Micah Parsons #11 of the Penn State Nittany Lions reacts after making a tackle Kevin Marks #5 of the Buffalo Bulls during the second half at Beaver Stadium on September 07, 2019 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

17 – Las Vegas Raiders: Micah Parsons – LB – Penn State

NFL Comparison – Tremaine Edmunds

It seems like every April the Raiders enter the draft in need of defensive help. Such is the case again this year after Las Vegas allowed a ghastly 29.9 points per game. Parsons is a blue chip prospect with an elite combination of size, athleticism and versatility.

Other Considerations – Caleb Farley (CB), Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL), Greg Newsome II (CB)

Georgia defensive back Azeez Ojulari (13) against Arkansas during an NCAA college football game in Fayetteville, Ark. Saturday, Sept. 26, 2020. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)

18 – Miami Dolphins: Azeez Ojulari – EDGE – Georgia

NFL Comparison – Yannick Ngakoue

A Dolphin hasn’t recorded double-digit sacks since Cameron Wake met the milestone in 2017. Ojulari, who is Pro Football Focus’ highest graded pass rusher in the draft, brings some much-needed juice off the edge.

Other Considerations – Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL), Najee Harris (RB), Travis Etienne (RB)

Southern California guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (75) goes participates in the school’s pro day football workout for NFL scouts Wednesday, March 24, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

19 – Washington Football Team: Alijah Vera-Tucker – OL – USC

NFL Comparison – Zack Martin

Upgrading the offensive line is a must for a Washington team that surrendered 50 sacks last season, tied for second most in the league. Vera-Tucker is one of the cleaner prospects in this draft and excelled at both guard and tackle at Southern California.

Other Considerations – Tevin Jenkins (OT), Caleb Farley (CB), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB)

Caleb Farley #3 of the Virginia Tech Hokies intercepts a pass from Dee Wiggins #8 of the Miami Hurricanes during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium on October 05, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

20 – Chicago Bears: Caleb Farley – CB – Virginia Tech

NFL Comparison – Jalen Ramsey

Farley was arguably the draft’s top cornerback prospect before back surgery caused him to miss his pro day. Still, Farley is expected to be ready for training camp, and the Bears could have a steal on their hands as they aim to replace Kyle Fuller with another gifted Virginia Tech corner.

Other Considerations – Tevin Jenkins (OT), Greg Newsome II (CB), Elijah Moore (WR)

Oklahoma State offensive lineman Teven Jenkins (73) during an NCAA college football game against Texas in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2020. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

21 – Indianapolis Colts: Teven Jenkins – OT – Oklahoma State

NFL Comparison – Orlando Brown

Anthony Castonzo’s retirement left a canyon-sized void at left tackle that cannot be filled with low-level veteran signings. Jenkins is a bulldozer of a lineman whose nasty demeanor would fit the identity of an offensive line highlighted by Quenton Nelson.

Other Considerations – Alex Leatherwood (OT), Liam Eichenberg (OT), Jayson Oweh (DE)

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Elijah Moore #8 of the Mississippi Rebels looks for a place to run in the second half of a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Razorback Stadium on October 17, 2020 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

22 – Tennessee Titans: Elijah Moore – WR – Ole Miss

NFL Comparison – Tyler Lockett

Tennessee needs to restock their weapons cabinet after WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith found new homes in free agency. Moore is a dynamic playmaker who can beat you deep, underneath and even out of the backfield.

Other Considerations – Rashod Bateman (WR), Greg Newsome II (CB), Kadarius Toney (WR)

Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II, participates in the school’s Pro Day football workout for NFL scouts Tuesday, March 9, 2021, in Evanston, Ill. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

23 – New York Jets: Greg Newsome II – CB – Northwestern

NFL Comparison – Darius Slay

Have you seen New York’s depth chart lately? Even the most avid Jets fan would struggle to identify the team’s anonymous group of cornerbacks. As a prospect, Newsome II checks a lot of boxes and has all the tools to be a reliable NFL cover man.

Other Considerations – Travis Etienne (RB), Najee Harris (RB), Jayson Oweh (DE)

Alabama running back Najee Harris (22) runs against Notre Dame during the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

24 – Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris – RB – Alabama

NFL Comparison – Matt Forte

A recommitment to the run is needed in Pittsburgh after their pass-heavy attack lost steam down the stretch in 2020. Harris’ size, vision and pass-catching ability may remind some of a former Steelers back who had quite a run with the Black and Gold.

Other Considerations – Travis Etienne (RB), Landon Dickerson (C), Liam Eichenberg (OT)

Alabama defensive lineman Christian Barmore (58) celebrates a sack against Western Carolina during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 23, 2019, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

25 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Christian Barmore – DT – Alabama

NFL Comparison – Chris Jones

After finishing in the bottom three in both sacks (18) and rushing yards allowed (153.3 YPG), it doesn’t take a Hall of Fame general manager to realize the Jaguars need help along the defensive line. Not many men his size can move the way Barmore does. He has the tools to develop into a difference maker.

Other Considerations – Trevon Moehrig (S), Landon Dickerson (C), Liam Eichenberg (OT)

Notre Dame linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (6) defends against Alabama during the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

26 – Cleveland Browns: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – LB – Notre Dame

NFL Comparison – Telvin Smith

Owusu-Koramoah is the latest new-age, hybrid linebacker that’s trending around the NFL as teams opt to sacrifice size for players who can run and cover. In a division with Lamar Jackson, adding explosive athletes to second level of the defense is a must.

Other Considerations – Jamin Davis (LB), Jayson Oweh (DE), Gregory Rousseau (DE)

Alabama offensive lineman Landon Dickerson (69) is shown during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Southern Miss in Tuscaloosa, Ala., in this Saturday, Sept. 21, 2019, file photo. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt, File)

27 – Baltimore Ravens: Landon Dickerson – C – Alabama

NFL Comparison – Frank Ragnow

The center position was an absolute mess last year in Baltimore. Dickerson is a massive, mauling lineman who fits the Ravens’ smash-mouth mentality. His talent sneaks him into the first round despite an ACL tear in December.

Other Considerations – Rashod Bateman (WR), Jayson Oweh (DE), Liam Eichenberg (OT)

Kadarius Toney #1 of the Florida Gators takes in this reception for a touchdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first half of the SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 19, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

28 – New Orleans Saints: Kadarius Toney – WR – Florida

NFL Comparison – Percy Harvin

Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill aren’t capable of elevating those around them like Drew Brees was, and thus need more playmakers to lean on. Toney is an elite athlete whose burst, agility and contact balance make him deadly with the ball in his hands.

Other Considerations – Rashod Bateman (WR), Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR), Asante Samuel Jr. (CB)

Florida State Seminoles defensive back Asante Samuel Jr. (26) tries to intercept a pass intended for North Carolina State wide receiver Tabari Hines (5) in the second half of an NCAA college football game in Tallahassee, Fla., Saturday, Sept. 28, 2019. (AP Photo/Mark Wallheiser)

29 – Green Bay Packers: Asante Samuel Jr. – CB – Northwestern

NFL Comparison – Joe Haden

Green Bay could go in several directions here but opts for a cornerback to pair with Jaire Alexander. Samuel Jr. makes up for his lack of size with quick feet and outstanding route recognition and awareness.

Other Considerations – Jamin Davis (LB), Jalen Mayfield (OT), Liam Eichenberg (OT)

Running back Travis Etienne #9 of the Clemson Tigers runs with the ball on a kickoff return in the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium on December 19, 2020 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

30 – Buffalo Bills: Travis Etienne – RB – Clemson

NFL Comparison – Jamaal Charles

When your roster is as well rounded as Buffalo’s, you can afford to simply take the best player available. The Bills add a difference-maker at running back who has game-changing ability as both a runner and receiver.

Other Considerations – Jayson Oweh (DE), Gregory Rousseau (DE), Kelvin Joseph (CB)

Minnesota wide receiver Rashod Bateman (0) runs on a pass reception away from Michigan linebacker Josh Ross (12) in the third quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 24, 2020, in Minneapolis.(AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)

31 – Baltimore Ravens: Rashod Bateman – WR – Minnesota

NFL Comparison – Calvin Ridley

Receiver is clearly a priority for the Ravens who were reportedly interested in several of this year’s top free agent wideouts. Baltimore uses the first rounder acquired in the Orlando Brown trade to draft Bateman, who has an enticing blend of production and traits.

Other Considerations – Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR), Jayson Oweh (DE), Gregory Rousseau (DE)

TCU safety Trevon Moehrig (7) looks on against Texas Tech during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 7, 2020, in Fort Worth, Texas. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)

32 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trevon Moehrig – S – TCU

NFL Comparison – Jessie Bates

The Buccaneers appear to be locked and loaded for another championship run as they return all 22 starters. With no immediate needs, Tampa selects the best player available. Moehrig is a versatile cover safety who pairs with Antoine Winfield Jr. to give the Bucs an exciting, young safety duo.

Other Considerations – Jayson Oweh (DE), Gregory Rousseau (DE), Javonte Williams (RB)

Round 2

33 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Alex Leatherwood – OT – Alabama

34 – New York Jets: Javonte Williams – RB – North Carolina

35 – Atlanta Falcons: Jayson Oweh – DE – Penn State

36 – Miami Dolphins: Liam Eichenberg – OT – Notre Dame

37 – Philadelphia Eagles: Jamin Davis – LB – Kentucky

38 – Cincinnati Bengals: Sam Cosmi – OT – Texas

39 – Carolina Panthers: Kelvin Joseph – CB – Kentucky

40 – Denver Broncos: Gregory Rousseau – DE – Miami

41 – Detroit Lions: Terrace Marshall Jr. – WR – LSU

42 – New York Giants: Creed Humphrey – C – Oklahoma

43 – San Fransisco 49ers: Joe Tryon – DE – Washington

44 – Dallas Cowboys: Carlos Basham Jr. – DE – Wake Forest

45 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Pat Freiermuth – TE – Penn State

46 – New England Patriots: Davis Mills – QB – Stanford

47 – Los Angeles Chargers: Eric Stokes – CB – Georgia

48 – Las Vegas Raiders: Ifeatu Melifonwu – CB – Syracuse

49 – Arizona Cardinals: Rondale Moore – WR – Purdue

50 – Miami Dolphins: Zaven Collins – LB – Tulsa

51 – Washington Football Team: Dillon Radunz – OT – North Dakota State

52 – Chicago Bears: Joseph Ossai – EDGE – Texas

53 – Tennessee Titans: Aaron Robinson – CB – UCF

54 – Indianapolis Colts: Payton Turner – DE – Houston

55 – Pittsburgh Steelers: Walker Little – OT – Stanford

56 – Seattle Seahawks: Levi Onwuzurike – DT – Washington

57 – Los Angeles Rams: Jevon Holland – S – Oregon

58 – Kanas City Chiefs: Ronnie Perkins – DE – Oklahoma

59 – Cleveland Brown: Alim McNeill – DT – North Carolina State

60 – New Orleans Saints: Nick Bolton – LB – Missouri

61 – Buffalo Bills: Elijah Molden – DB – Washington

62 – Green Bay Packers: Jabril Cox – LB – LSU

63 – Kansas City Chiefs: Nico Collins – WR – Michigan

64 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kellen Mond – QB – Texas A&M

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