A slight warm up before potential weekend snow

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Early Thursday morning the low temperature dipped to 16° in the city – coldest Since February 20th (11°).  The remarkable cold march just keeps rolling along.  Skies will be clear overnight with lighter winds.  We are expecting a low of 19° in the city.  It’s been 7 years since a low temperature this cold occurred so late in March.  To date, the average high and low temperature combined is running 5° per day below normal, a deficit of 105°.  When compared to last March (warmest March ever) there has been a 396° temperature change!  Talk about a flip-flop!


Since February 15th a pattern change developed in the northern hemisphere.  Known and the “Greenland Block”, this feature has played a prominent role in our winter weather for several years.  It was absent last Winter and we went on to have one of the warmest, least snowiest Winters ever.  We also had an amazingly warm March (warmest ever) and Spring that eventually led to the dry and extremely hot Summer.  Well it’s back and in a big way.

Greenland Block
Blocking pattern keeps cold over eastern U.S.

Long Range forecasts have handled this feature well and continue to show the relentless pattern will last for at least the next 2.5 weeks.  Average high temperatures are likely to remain a stunning 15 to 20 degrees below normal.  It is possible we may not reach 50° or higher until the second week of April!

Meteogram Dep from Norm


Storm tracks are still drifting but strongly suggest the storm will move out of Texas through Arkansas and move northeast into southern Indiana, Kentucky or northern Tennessee.  That is where the machine forecasts diverge.


GFS (U.S. medium range forecast model)

GEM (Enviroment Canada forecast model)

JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency)

NAVGEM (U.S. Naval Model)

ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Prediction)

The exact track will determine where the heaviest snow will fall and these forecast tracks will drift over the next few days. As the storm system gets closer short-range models will get in to the mix of the storm track forecast but at this distance long-range models provide the early forecast solutions.  A preferred forecast model and heavily trusted European (ECMWF) as of Thursday night has the favored snow through central Indiana with snowfall amount in the neighborhood of 6 inches.  This is by-far not a final take on the snow and amounts, storm tracks and timing will be adjusted.  Be sure to stay with us as this storm system unfolds.

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