Well garbage, in garbage out as the old forecasting saying goes. Yesterday’s forecast numbers didn’t anticipate the surge of the cold front to the south. This put us in an area with colder than expected core temperatures and that just didn’t allow us to warm-up (forecast 850s yesterday were -3 Spent day hovering around -5). MOS data from the GFS did forecast yesterday’s highs correctly but it did not show the movement of that colder air and was forecasting the same airmass that we saw on Tuesday where it was off by about 10 degrees. Basically I bring up yesterday’s busted forecast due to today’s forecast. We find ourselves in a similar situation as yesterday with core temps (850mb) slowing rising throughout the day. Yesterday we went with a forecast high today of 42 degrees. I think that is about what we can expect today but will likely stick with a more conservative forecast of highs in the upper 30s.
Winds today will once again be out of the northeast and that makes me a bit nervous on going too aggressive with temperatures. Today could be a similar set-up to yesterday with cold northeastern winds keeping our temperatures down. Satellite imagery also shows cloud cover will once again play a role in just how warm we get. Warm air isn’t too far away as we are seeing temps near 30 degrees in Evansville this morning. St Louis is also just slightly cooler than Evansville to start off the day. There’s a little bubble of warmer air off to out west southwest and that should roll in allowing temperatures to be slightly warmer.
Looking at your extended forecast most things remain the same with the only notable change being us shaving off about 5 degrees on Saturday. Saturday’s high is now expected to be in the mid-40s instead of near 50. Sunday’s high could potentially be warmer than Saturday’s but for now will continue to keep it slightly colder even though model data is showing core temperatures go from 0° to 3° when comparing Saturday to Sunday.
There will be a chance for some rain to snow on Saturday during the late afternoon and evening time frame. We could see more than a half inch but any snow that does develop won’t be around for long as temperatures will start but won’t stay below freezing on Sunday.