Heavy rain and storms before sharp cool off; Warmest October in over a century to cool down

Weather

Temperatures were once again above normal in central Indiana, the 18th straight day above and the latest 80-dgree day since 2017. October 2021 is among the warmest on record to-date but a cool down is coming.

HISTORIC OCTOBER

We have hit the half-way point of meteorological fall and October and warmth has dominated. Thursday marked the 18th consecutive day above normal after setting a record warm minimum. The low early Thursday of 68° shattered the previous record of 64° that stood for this date since 1887! The average low now is 46°, but we have only had three nights all season in Indianapolis sub 50° – fewest ever on record since records began 150 years ago, just remarkable!

Since September 1st, 73% of the days have been above normal placing this autumn as 8th warmest, but weighing heavily on our season is the warm October. October 2021 is currently the 3rd warmest on record with an average temperature at nearly 10-degrees per day above normal.

HEALTHY RAIN TO FALL ALONG WITH A STORM THREAT

The unseasonably warm air is also loaded with unseasonably high amounts of moisture. Gulf air is in place and will aid in locally heavy downpours late tonight into early Friday morning, and again Friday evening before a cold front sweeps the state. With a front nearing and for a time stalling, local flooding is possible as early as Friday morning. With additional rain late-day, more localized flooding will be possible before the rain finally ends before sunrise Saturday.

Amounts will vary widely but with repeated downpours. In and around thunderstorms the totals could top 3″ in some spots. The machine rainfall output reflects that with the wide range in numbers, but it is safe to say that 1″ to 3″ totals are very likely.

Rain and storms are to increase overnight to over 60% areal coverage and at times thundery downpours will occur. While some of the rain will be blinding at times the threat of strong-to-sever storms will be limited to early Thursday evening, and again late day Friday. There is a better potential for a few strong to severe storms mainly with damaging wind gusts for a portion of south-central to east-central Indiana. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has outlined a portion of the state for a ‘slight’ risk of severe storms Friday.

COOLEST OF THE SEASON

You may be longing for more of a fall feel, but the wait is almost over. Behind a cold front that sweeps the state and exits early Saturday morning, the COOLEST air of the season will settle in for a few days. Windy and much cooler air will flow into the state Saturday, delivering low temperatures early Sunday and Monday below 46° for the first time this season. Sunshine will follow the passing front Saturday and Sunday with more seasonal air for the weekend. Some locations may not reach 60-degrees Saturday, despite mostly sunny skies. A new warm up is on the way as we return to the seventies early next week.

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