March arrives as Winter pattern holds through the weekend, monitoring early week snow

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QUIET AND BRIGHTER WEEKEND

Cold temperatures are not letting up – off the normal high Friday of 45° a chilly 33° officially in the city.  Cloudy skies and the same storm system that brought the heavy rains Tuesday and snow showers Wednesday through today still influencing our weather.  As the storm inches east Saturday some drier air will work into central Indiana bringing a break in the clouds and the prospects of sunshine.  Saturday clouds will break for sun with a brighter day forecast for Sunday.

MARCH ARRIVES – FASTEST WARMING MONTH OF THE YEAR

March 1st marks the unofficial open to Spring!  Meteorological Spring that is.  We take a serious turn to milder weather as the month progresses.  The month will warm 13° from the average high on the 1st of 45° to 58° on the 31st, largest jump of any other month in the year.

The days get even longer!  We gain the most daylight of any other month in March increasing by 1 hour and 18 minutes by month’s end.

Sunshine Stats

LAST MARCH ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS

March 2012 was the warmest March ever recorded and what a month it was.  Severe weather opened the month with historic EF-4 killer tornado in Southern Indiana.  The warmth was unprecedented.  11 straight days above 70° with a total of 14 days above 70°.  A stunning number of 80° days for the month.  Seven days reached 80° or higher with a 84° high on the 21st, one degree shy of the highest ever March temperature.

WINTER NOT LETTING UP

Thirteen of the past 15 days have been at or below normal.  The pattern has turned cold and looks to remain rather cool for the next few weeks.  Cold weather indicators have gone negative and suggest that a blocking patter has/will develop over the North Atlantic.  This atmospheric set up portends colder air for the eastern U.S. and looks to remain intact through mid March.  Temperatures are expected to average below normal 8 to 15° off the normal high which is now 45° and increased to 49° by March 15th.

UPDATED: SNOW CHANCES RETURNING

As of Friday night, the consensus of computer forecast tracks for the early week storm system are in rather good agreement this far out.  Two low pressures are moving in starting Monday.  The main low initially drops south from Canada.  Warm air will push out in advance of this low and bring an initial round of snow in Monday evening or night.  As the system begins to amplify and new surface low will develop and become the main low somewhere over the Mississippi Valley.  Snow may increase as this low takes shape and pushes east Tuesday.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty as to the storm track and available moisture. Machine generated precipitation forecasts are early with an average of .41″ of liquid available.  The track is a cold one and suggests about 4″ of snow  possible with a range of 3″ to 5″.  By no means is this the final take on this storm.  We will monitor through  the weekend and update the forecast.

Strom_Track

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