Update (10:40 PM) – The Severe T-storm Watch has been canceled. Thunderstorms will continue overnight but the severe weather threat has diminished.
Tropical Storm Arthur is our first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. It developed in the Atlantic late Saturday night, triggering Tropical Storm Warnings along the North Carolina coast. This storm will move northeast, into the Atlantic over the next few days. However, it’s this system that’s playing a part in slowing down our warmup.
As the upper level low nearby cuts off, it lingers in the area for the next few days. This will result in more moisture being pulled across the state, especially in our eastern counties. Due to this, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for parts of central Indiana for Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.
Sunday afternoon update – We’re tracking a severe weather threat Sunday night as a cold front slowly moves toward Indiana. All severe weather threats are in play tonight and include the potential for damaging winds, hail and even a couple isolated tornadoes. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for our western counties until 11 PM Sunday.
As of 4:30 PM, we were just tracking scattered, light rainfall activity across Central Indiana. A warm front has lifted north and we’re tracking a cold front to our west. Heavy cloud cover and times of light showers may have played to our favor in weakening chances for severe storm development here. Nonetheless, the threat exists as there are many factors at play here, including the chance for some clearing early this evening. Dynamics also look reasonable to support rotating storms along and ahead of the front late tonight. The front is projected to reach the Illinois/Indiana border closer to 8PM this evening. This will begin the timeline for our severe storm potential.
Most favorable air for the strongest storms will be in our western counties. It’s possible the Storm Prediction Center could issue an watch box in this area early this evening.
Rain and storm chances continue into Monday morning. Low pressure nearby cuts off and then lingering in the area for the next few days. This keeps chances for rain in the forecast into Tuesday, as additional showers wrap around this system and slide back across the state. Due to this, a Flash Flood Watch has been issue for parts of central Indiana. This watch is in effect from Monday morning until Tuesday afternoon. Recent data suggests that some locations could receive more than 3″ of rain by Tuesday afternoon.