Storm chances return later tonight; Stuffy stretch extends into next week

Weather

STUFFY STRETCH

Here comes the humidity. On the rise Wednesday afternoon and projected to remain rather sticky for at least the next 10 days. High clouds are arriving late day but rain and the storm threat still many hours away. These clouds are the product of upper-level winds shaving off storm tops several miles to our west.

STORM CHANCE LATE

The threat for a few gusty/active thunderstorms is at this time directed toward far western Indiana before 10 pm as the cluster or complex of storms in Illinois charges east. We will monitor trends but at this time (5 pm) a shrinking area of instability signals that support of an ongoing storm complex is small. The complex should weaken before midnight and before it reaches the central portion of the state.

These complexes will often be pushed along by a late night jet stream and that keeps the storms going well into the night. At this time the area of higher instability and could better support stronger storms aligns in southwest Indiana. The image below is a forecast of the instability axis before 2 am. We feel this could be the location for stronger storms and will again monitor trends.

MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY

A resurgent hot dome will spread heat and humidity east through the weekend and most likely will be slow to back down for several days. The flatter, west to east heat pattern will permit a few storm clusters to dip into the state from time to time, but there is no real cold fronts expected to pass. The latest outlook suggests a higher probability of above normal temperatures entering the final week of July. Several more afternoons of 90-degree heat are possible. To date Indianapolis has had 11 days reach or surpass 90° – the average in an entire season is 19.

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