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The dry spell began in late July and in the span since July 22nd, we’ve had less than one inch of rain.  Dry conditions are becoming more widespread and there is some concern that flash drought conditions are well under way.

When warm soils and suddenly low to rapidly decreasing soil moisture occurs, stress on plants is underway and it could take a toll.

A new model is used to better detect the sensitive changes and serve as an early alarm monitor.  From the National Drought Mitigation center:

The Drought Mitigation center uses some short-term model data off a joint NASA-supported project team involving the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies (CALMIT) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (USGS EROS) Center, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (USDA ARS), and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has developed a drought monitoring tool called the Quick Drought Response Index (QuickDRI), which is tailored to detect short-term changes and rapid intensification of drought conditions through the integration of satellite, climate, and biophysical information.

Rainfall is not expected to reach much more than 20% coverage Thursday so hope for real rainfall is not expected.  Off short-term machines, the rainfall output will not be enough to put a dent in the deficit.

While and isolated and locally heavy downpour could occur from mid/late afternoon into early Friday morning, the window is rather small.

Dry time returns with lowered humidity starting Friday and likely lasting through early next week.  We are encouraged, at this distance that Tuesday will offer up a better threat for area-wide rainfall.