RAIN VS SNOW
A new mid-week storm system will arrive in central Indiana bringing more rain and snow area-wide by Wednesday evening. The low pressure will ride northeast grabbing Gulf of Mexico moisture and race through Tennessee and Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
This storm track is more favorable for accumulating snow as colder air gets injected into the storm, something that has been lacking in almost all the storms since mid-December.
We are carefully analyzing the latest data and revising the storm track as new information becomes available. Here is what we know this evening.
A surge of precipitation will race into central Indiana by late Wednesday afternoon and evening. The morning commute and even lunchtime Wednesday is rain and snow free but conditions change quickly before 5 pm.
Rain is expected to surge north and change to big, wet snowflakes before the evening commute and produce a slushy coating along I-70. Snow will likely change to all rain in Indianapolis and along and south of I-70 before nightfall while snow increases in coverage and intensity further north. This system is different than last week with a much lower threat of freezing rain and sleet but light icing is not out of the question in portions of far eastern Indiana late Wednesday evening.
At this time a pool of warmer air aloft and above freezing temperatures at the surface will allow mainly rain to fall in Indianapolis after sunset and through 12 am when the storm will be at its height. The storm will track east before sunrise changing rain to snow and producing occasional snow showers into the Thursday morning commute.
The critical 32-degree line still to be determined. The 4 “T’s” of winter storm forecasting includes UPDATED Track, Timing, Type and Temperatures.
Given the latest track, timing, type and temperatures, the favored snowfall of 4″ to 6″ is across north-central Indiana. A winter weather advisory is in effect from 1 pm Wednesday through 1 pm Thursday.
As you know this is not the final take on this storm, much can and will change – so be sure to check back tonight as new data becomes available. We will be hawking over the new information and share it with you on air at 10 and 11 pm and on-line.