Storm threat looms throughout long holiday weekend, but dry time will be plentiful

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A fickle front has surged north late in the day, spreading heat and humidity well north of Indianapolis late Friday. Early in the afternoon, temperatures ranged from the lower 70s on the north side of the city to mid/upper 80s south. The temperatures then jumped as the front moved north and area-wide a real summer feel took hold.

Friday was identified nearly two weeks ago as potentially the warmest of 2019 and it lived up to its billing. The stalled front threatened a busted forecast but the front moved and temperatures moved up to 88-degrees briefly at the observation site for the city near the airport. Some locations south were on the cusp of their first 90-degree day while Bedford in Lawrence County topped 91-degrees. Friday, Carb Day, was the warmest here since last October.


Showers and thunderstorms are out of the picture for now as the warm front heads north. The rest of the night and a majority of our Saturday will be spent rain free. However, thunderstorms are a real possibility by early/late afternoon tomorrow. The front will be pesky and wobbling south so the threat will rise for a few gusty storms during peak heating hours Saturday. Rainfall coverage is not terribly high, meaning many locations are in store to dodge the rain all together but moves to nearly 40% areal coverage by 5 p.m.


No doubt, rain will fall on Sunday, but now is when we can really fine tune and hone in on the gaps or windows of dry time Sunday. The picture is becoming clearer late Friday and trends are in our favor.

At this time, Saturday evening storms will diminish but as a late night jet stream kicks in, a new cluster of robust storms are looking likely well before sunrise Sunday. I’m posting below two machine forecasts around 2-3 a.m. Sunday. The takeaway is that there is very good consistency within the forecast leading to very high probability of where and when the storms will occur.

The thinking is that these storms (possibly strong) will diminish and dry time takes hold. The “WINDOW” appears to open from sunrise though early afternoon before daytime heating, a stalled front and remnants of overnight storm encourage new showers and storms to develop. Rainfall coverage could grow quickly after 2 p.m. Sunday so it may be close. By no means a final take on Sunday’s forecast, so be sure to check back!

Beyond Sunday, the Memorial Day forecast is improving as well. Early morning showers and thunderstorms are once again a real possibility but dry time will return as skies brighten and temperatures warm again to afternoon highs in the middle 80s. Rain chances look to remain low by early afternoon and evening Monday. Have a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend everyone!

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