Warming up for the last weekend of September; timing desperately needed rain!

Weather Blog

The data is in and as expected, the dry conditions have worsened across the state. The latest Drought Monitor has expanded the Abnormally Dry and Moderate Drought conditions from covering 77% of the state last week to 91% this week. Many areas west of Indianapolis have fallen into the “moderate drought” range now. This is no surprise. Since August 19th, Indianapolis has only received 0.04″ of rainfall. That’s the driest for the dates (August 19th – September 24th) in 112 years.

The 0.04″ all fell during the month of September and as of Thursday, this is the 3rd driest September on record for Indianapolis. While rainfall is in the forecast by late in the weekend and early next week, model inconsistency on amounts is concerning.

The remnants of ‘Beta’ passing to our south managed to bring some very light rainfall to our far southern counties early this morning. Radar estimates less than 0.10″ fell near Bedford. That’s certainly not enough to make a noteable dent in our rain deficit that is approaching or above 4″ (since August 19th) in many areas.

As these remnants have been moving east, our skies have brightened significantly from what they looked like on Wednesday. We’ll keep mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies for the next couple of days. Temperatures this evening will remain comfortable but in the coming days, some big swings in that department are coming our way. Afternoon highs rise into the 80s for Saturday before taking a tumble into the 60s by mid next week. A couple of cold fronts passing Sunday night, followed by a stronger front on Tuesday will usher in the cooler air while providing some forcing to produce rainfall. A two-model comparison of 7 day rain totals is looking more optimistic on the potential for our desperately needed rainfall. Stay tuned!

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