A wet start to the week is about to take a turn.
Snow will fall in central Indiana will start late tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 a.m. Wednesday through 1 a.m. Thursday.
The two-day rainfall total is nearly three-quarters of an inch, which elevates the year to the 11th wettest on record to date. With 9" of total precipitation so far this year, this is the wettest start to a year since 2005. We will add to the totals but in the form of snow starting late tonight.
WINTER WEATHER RETURNS
A second low pressure will take a southern track and bring snowfall back to central Indiana. In the wake of the first low, colder air will be drawn into the state, permitting the rain to change to a wet snow late tonight. At this time, we are not expecting snowfall until after 12 a.m. Snow will become more area-wide in the predawn hours and increase before sunrise.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 a.m. Wednesday through 1 a.m. Thursday for the northern half of the state as the projected low pressure storm track favors more accumulating snow across central and north central Indiana. Snowfall of 2" to 4" is possible, but there could be locally higher amounts north of 4" to 6". Heavier bands are possible of producing elevated snowfall rates for a time Wednesday. It will be a wet snow and fall during the afternoon hours, which will hamper the snow ratio. It will be a high water content snow and great for packing!
At this time (forecast updated 4 p.m. Tuesday), a few totals could top 5" to 6" up north. I'm posting below the probability of a 4" snow from a ensemble forecast generated from the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center. This takes into account dozens of computer generated forecasts and assigns a probability of 2", 4" and 6" totals. There is higher confidence of the 4" to 6" totals to the north.
Snow will taper off to flurries late Wednesday night as colder air arrives on gusty northwest winds. Temperatures will fall into the teens by early Thursday morning.